Weekly Economic Update – Nov. 26, 2012

John J. Barrios, CFP® Presents:
WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE

“An inventor is simply a fellow who doesn’t take his education too seriously.”

– Charles Kettering


WEEKLY TIP

Some people open a retirement account only to “set it and forget it,” leaving the asset allocation unchanged for years. As you get older, be sure to review your allocation choices in light of your risk tolerance and time horizon.

  

  

WEEKLY RIDDLE

Ray slipped off of a 30-foot escalator and landed on a sidewalk. He was embarrassed, yet uninjured. How could this be?

  

   

Last week’s riddle:

Rhyming Riddle: My first is twice in apple but not once in tart. My second is in liver but not in heart. My third is in giant and also in ghost. Whole I’m best when I am roast. What am I?

  

Last week’s answer:

A pig.

November 26, 2012

MORE GOOD NEWS FROM THE HOUSING MARKET

Existing home sales rose 2.1% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR noted a 10.9% annual gain in the sales pace and an 11.1% year-over-year rise in the median sale price to $178,600. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index came in at 46 for November, a six-and-a-half year peak. Housing starts increased 3.6% in October to a five-year high.1,2

DID CONSUMER SENTIMENT IMPROVE THIS MONTH?

The University of Michigan’s bellwether consumer sentiment survey came in at a final mark of 82.7 for November, up 0.1 point from the final October reading. The index’s preliminary November reading had been 84.9.3

WILL HOLIDAY SHOPPING SURPASS FORECASTS?

The National Retail Federation projects 5 million fewer Black Friday weekend shoppers this year, but also a 4.1% annual gain in holiday retail sales. A Reuters survey showed that 21% of shoppers think they will spend less this holiday season, while 11% think they will spend more.4

 

CHEAPEST HOME LOANS IN DECADES

With a helping hand from QE3, the average interest rate on the 30-year FRM fell to 3.34%, a new record low, in Freddie Mac’s November 20 Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, interest rates on these loans were hovering near 4%.2

DOW CLOSES ABOVE 13,000

Congress took its Thanksgiving recess last week, and no discouraging news on the fiscal cliff talks amounted to relatively good news for Wall Street. The Dow (+3.35% to 13,009.68), S&P 500 (+3.62% to 1,409.15) and NASDAQ (+3.99% to 2,966.85) all advanced across three-and-a-half trading days. Gold settled Friday at $1,751.80 an ounce, oil at $88.36 a barrel.5,6,7

THIS WEEK: No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, September’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out plus the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence poll, data on October hard goods orders and earnings from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Wednesday, TiVo, Aeropostale, Neiman Marcus, Ann and Fifth Street Finance issue earnings reports and a new Fed Beige Book appears plus data on October new home sales. Thursday, NAR’s report on October pending home sales, the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the latest initial claims complement earnings from Kroger, Tiffany, Barnes & Noble, Mitel and Cracker Barrel. Friday sees the release of the October personal spending report.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+6.48

+15.56

+0.04

+4.78

NASDAQ

+13.88

+20.60

+2.85

+10.20

S&P 500

+12.05

+21.29

-0.44

+5.14

REAL YIELD

11/23 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.72%

-0.01%

1.63%

3.10%

 

Sources: thestreet.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 11/23/125,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

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John Barrios is registered to offer securities through First Heartland Capital, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, and offer advisory services through First Heartland Consultants, Inc.   Barrios Financial Services is not affiliated with First Heartland Capital, Inc.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-existing-home-sales-homebuilder-confidence-20121119,0,207630.story [11/19/12]

2 – abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/11/housing-starts-surged-3-6-pct-in-october/ [11/20/12]

3 – www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-economy-consumer-20121121,0,596839.story [11/21/12]

4 – www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/usa-retail-holiday-blackfriday-idUSL1E8MN0D220121123 [11/23/12]

5 – www.thestreet.com/story/11774464/1/stock-market-story-nov-23.html [11/23/12]

6 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/49938926 [11/23/12]

7 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F23%2F11&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F23%2F07&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F22%2F02&x=0&y=0 [11/23/12]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/23/12]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/23/12]

10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]

 

 

 

 

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