WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE 10/31/2011

John J Barrios, CFP® Presents:
WEEKLY QUOTE

“A happy marriage is the union of two good forgivers.”

– Robert Quillen

WEEKLY TIP

If you’re a new parent, you have 18 years to save for your child’s college education. Start now, because who knows what college will cost by 2030.

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

A man brings a silver antique wrapped up in a towel to an appraiser, claiming it is a trophy engraved “To General Stonewall Jackson, presented after the first Battle of Bull Run, 1861.” The appraiser knows it is a fake without even looking at it. Why?

Last week’s riddle:
I am in the center of gravity, and part of every victory. I am clearly seen in the midst of a river. I could name three who are in love with me and have three associates in vice. What am I?

Last week’s answer:

The letter V.

 

October 31, 2011

Households EARN & SAVE LESS, YET SPEND MORE
On Friday, Commerce Department data showed that personal incomes have declined in each of the past three months when adjusted for inflation. However, personal spending has increased in each of those months; it improved by 0.6% in September. The personal savings rate fell by 0.5% last month to 3.6%, a low unseen since December 2007.1,2

 

CONTRASTING CONSUMER SENtiment findings
October’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey improved from its September predecessor, moving to 60.9 from 59.4.Yet the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index slipped from 46.4 last month to 39.8 this month, a reading more like the ones from the Great Recession.1,3

 

NEW HOME SALES up 5.7%
September’s increase was the first in four months, aided by a 3.1% monthly dip in prices and ultra-low mortgage rates. The Census Bureau said that new home sales were down 0.9% from a year before. Turning to residential resales, the National Association of Realtors pending home sales index unexpectedly fell 4.6% for September. On the bright side, the August Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 0.2% for August, a fifth straight monthly advance; there were price gains for 10 of 20 metro areas surveyed.4,5,6

 

A TERRIFIC WEEK FOR STOCKS
Last week, Eurozone leaders struck a deal in which the region’s banks would accept a 50% writedown on Greek bonds. They also agreed to boost the euro area bailout fund fivefold and announced a bank recapitalization plan. Pair that with U.S. 3Q GDP coming in at an initial estimate of +2.5%, and you have two of the factors that brought about these big weekly gains : DJIA, +3.58% to 12,231.11; S&P 500, +3.78% to 1,285.08; NASDAQ, +3.78% to 2,737.15.7,8,9

 

THIS WEEK: On Monday, Allstate and Humana issue earnings reports. Tuesday, the ISM October manufacturing index is released and 3Q results come in from Pfizer, Valero, MetroPCS and Archer Daniels Midland. Wednesday, Ben Bernanke speaks as the Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day policy meeting; earnings are released by Molson Coors, Tesoro, Qualcomm, Kraft Foods, Comcast and MasterCard. Thursday we get earnings from CVS, Starbucks, CBS, Genworth, AIG, Fluor, Sunoco, Kellogg, PG&E and Public Storage; there will also be an ECB rate decision, and the ISM service sector index for October comes out. On Friday, October’s unemployment report will be released.

 

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +5.65 +10.05 +0.23 +3.20
NASDAQ +3.18 +9.16 +3.29 +6.11
S&P 500 +2.18 +8.56 -1.34 +1.92
REAL YIELD 10/28 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.19% 0.57% 2.37% 3.50%

 
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 10/28/119,10,11,12

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

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John Barrios is registered to offer securities through First Heartland Capital, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, and offer advisory services through First Heartland Consultants, Inc.   Barrios Financial Services is not affiliated with First Heartland Capital, Inc.

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/10/28/consumer-spending-rises-weak-incomes-worry/ [10/28/11]

2 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=5-savings-secrets&category=29 [10/28/11]

3 – npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/10/25/141683694/consumer-confidence-back-down-to-recession-level [10/25/11]

4 – marketwatch.com/story/new-us-home-sales-rise-as-prices-tumble-2011-10-26 [10/26/11]

5 – bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/pending-sales-of-u-s-existing-homes-unexpectedly-falls-4-6-on-demand-ebb.html [10/27/11]

6 – articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/25/business/la-fi-home-prices-20111026 [10/25/11]

7 – marketwatch.com/story/greek-bondholders-to-take-50-haircut-2011-10-26 [10/27/11]

8 – abcnews.go.com/Business/gdp-grew-25-percent-boosted-consumer-spending-double/story?id=14821833 [10/27/11]

9 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=9a8a85b3-fec9-44a1-992f-8ad9c15a1c30 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F28%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F28F2%2F10&x=10&y=18 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F28%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F29%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F29%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F29%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/28/11]

11 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/28/11]

11 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/28/11]

12 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01]

 

 

 

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